September 26, 2026
Bonus Content: Nscale Asks Investors to Trust Two Customers at $35 Billion
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Nscale Asks Investors to Trust Two Customers at $35 Billion
The question sitting in front of every institutional investor who has received the Nscale roadshow is blunt: do you trust a $35 billion valuation built almost entirely on two relationships?
Nscale has secured over $103 billion in contracts, with 85% coming from two clients: Microsoft at up to $43.8 billion and Anthropic at up to $44.6 billion. Only about $2.6 billion of that is live today, and most of the rest depends on data centers, power plants, and GPUs that haven’t been built or fully financed yet. Against that backdrop, the prospectus discloses revenue of $140.6 million for the six months ended June 30, 2026, up 1,252% year-over-year, alongside a net loss of $1.02 billion, widened from $368.9 million in H1 2025.
Why Wall Street Cares
The timing is pointed. On September 16, 2026, Reuters reported that Holtec Nuclear suspended its planned U.S. IPO after Bloomberg News cited people familiar with the matter, with the offering put on hold because of market conditions. Nscale filed two days later. The professionals who declined to underwrite Holtec are being handed a second test within a week, and this one asks for considerably more conviction.
The Bull Case
The contracts are not vaporware. Microsoft and Anthropic have signed statements of work worth up to $43.8 billion and $44.6 billion respectively, subject to delivery and financing conditions. Nscale has also secured approximately $3.1 billion in convertible financing, including $1 billion from Nvidia. That Nvidia participation matters: it is not a passive chip supplier writing a check. Nvidia has participated in funding rounds, provided chips for Nscale’s data centers, and guaranteed approximately $860 million in lease obligations.
This pattern of Nvidia moving beyond chip sales into direct financial stakes and infrastructure guarantees is part of a deliberate strategy that has accelerated over the past year. Nvidia’s series of power-infrastructure bets and what they reveal about its supply-chain strategy provides the broader context for why a $1 billion check into Nscale fits a playbook Jensen Huang has been executing across multiple fronts.
The business is currently running at about $400 million annualized based on the second quarter. Revenue over the next twelve months should reach at least $1.2 billion because that much prepaid cash is already scheduled to convert to revenue. A year from now, if the contracts signed before December go live on schedule, the run rate could land somewhere around $3 billion to $4 billion. At that revenue level, even CoreWeave’s comparatively modest multiple starts to make the $35 billion ask look defensible.
The Bear Case
Concentration of this magnitude has no real precedent in a public neocloud. CoreWeave itself generated approximately 67% of its revenue from Microsoft for the year ended December 31, 2025, while data center builder Applied Digital has disclosed that a large majority of its colocation revenue is concentrated with one customer, CoreWeave. Nscale’s two-customer dependence goes further than either of those. Once key customers adjust their procurement pace, capital expenditures, or collaboration strategies, the impact could quickly ripple through the entire industry chain.
The Anthropic contract carries its own embedded risk. Anthropic is itself a private company burning capital, and the agreements are subject to delivery and financing conditions that neither party has fully disclosed. If Anthropic’s own fundraising stumbles, or if its compute demand shifts to in-house infrastructure, $44.6 billion of Nscale’s backlog softens overnight.
That fundraising risk is not hypothetical — it sits at the center of a live debate among institutional allocators. the institutional demand problem facing a potential Anthropic public offering is already straining the absorptive capacity of the market, and any turbulence in that process would land directly on Nscale’s largest contract counterparty.
What Investors Are Missing
The debate has focused on whether the contracts are real. The more important question is whether the customers remain solvent and committed buyers five to seven years out. Nscale’s weighted average contract life is approximately 5.7 years. That horizon is long enough to survive one model generation shift but not two. The GPU fleet Nscale is building around today’s hardware will face a different competitive landscape by 2030, and neither Microsoft nor Anthropic has locked itself into paying above-market rates if better options emerge.
There is also a quiet beneficiary embedded in the filing that the concentration discussion has obscured. The Monarch Compute Campus in West Virginia, acquired via AIPCorp in March 2026, holds a power generation runway scalable to over 8 gigawatts of gross power. That physical asset base has standalone value regardless of whether the GPU contracts convert, and it is not priced separately in the $35 billion figure.
Stocks to Watch
Nscale (NSCL) is the obvious center of this debate. The company has said it wants to raise as much as $3 billion, seeking a valuation more than double the $14.6 billion it was worth after its Series C earlier this year. The spread between private and public price alone should tell investors this deal prices optimistically.
CoreWeave (CRWV) is the most direct comparable. A successful Nscale listing validates the neocloud model broadly and may lift CoreWeave, which already trades publicly. A stumble does the reverse.
Nvidia (NVDA) wins in almost every scenario here. Nscale has disclosed approximately 25,000 active GPUs and roughly 461,000 active and contracted GPUs. Every contracted GPU that eventually gets deployed is a Nvidia sale, and the roughly $860 million in guaranteed leases makes Nvidia’s alignment with Nscale’s success unusually direct.
Microsoft (MSFT) and Anthropic are the silent underwriters of the entire valuation. If either pulls back, the $35 billion number needs rebuilding from scratch. That asymmetry, more than any earnings figure, is what the investment committee should be arguing about this week.
Understanding Microsoft’s capacity and willingness to honor that commitment requires a read on where its cloud infrastructure spending is actually heading. how Azure’s disclosed revenue figure reshapes the cloud infrastructure spending debate is the context any investor should have before treating a $43.8 billion Microsoft contract as a stable anchor for a $35 billion valuation.
