June 1, 2026
Industrials are still leading
June 1, 2026 check-in on XLI, ETN, CAT, and DE
Industrials are still leading
It’s June 1, 2026.
And I keep ending up in the same place: industrials.
Not because it’s exciting. It’s not. It’s because a lot of the spending driving this group feels stubborn. Utilities do not “kind of” upgrade a grid. Data centers do not “maybe” need power gear. Contractors don’t get to wish parts into existence. Stuff has to be built, installed, replaced. Then it has to be maintained. That loop is the whole story.
Here’s where I’m at: if you’ve been waiting for the sector to look cool before owning it, you’ll probably keep waiting.
Elon Musk Just Said 8 Words That Should TERRIFY Every Investor on Wall Street
“The cost of everything will drop to NOTHING.”
That’s what Musk told a room full of stunned executives. Most people laughed. One man didn’t. A 41-year stock market legend – the SAME man who bought Apple at $1… called NVIDIA at $1.10… both split adjusted says Musk is right. And he’s identified a handful of companies that could EXPLODE as this “deflation bomb” detonates across the economy.
A few numbers to keep the conversation honest (and current):
- XLI was up about 14.34% year to date as of May 6, 2026 (total return basis). That changes day to day, but the direction has been clear.
- Caterpillar reported about $1.9B of enterprise operating cash flow in Q1 2026 (reported April 30, 2026).
- Eaton reported Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.81 and guided to full-year 2026 adjusted EPS of $13.05 to $13.50.
- Deere reaffirmed a fiscal 2026 net income outlook of $4.5B to $5.0B in its May 21, 2026 update.
Now the part people skip.
Even with those strong reads, this space can still frustrate you. One quarter the backlog looks like a fortress, the next quarter it’s “normalization.” One month commodities are helping, the next month they’re the excuse. It’s why I like it, honestly. It forces you to stay practical.
Slight tangent, but it matters: I’ve noticed a weird split in conversations lately. The macro talk is all about slowing, yet the on-the-ground chatter from facility people is still “we’re behind and we’re hiring.” That mismatch does not last forever. It resolves. You just don’t get to pick when.
If I had to keep it simple, I’d frame it like this:
- Eaton is the cleanest way to stay close to the power buildout without trying to guess which software name wins next.
- Caterpillar is still the big “real economy” barometer. When it rolls over for real, you feel it.
- Deere is the one I respect the most, and trust the least. It can look calm right up until it isn’t.
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What I’m watching next is simple: do these companies keep talking about delivery timelines and capacity, or do they start talking about incentives and discounting. That’s the tone shift that matters.
