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The debate running through every power-sector investment committee right now is not whether AI is consuming more electricity. It is whether that consumption is durable enough to justify treating generation companies as a new category of growth stock. Vistra’s Friday results made that debate impossible to avoid.

Revenue rose year over year, while Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA increased by more than 50%, supported by higher realized power prices, three months’ contribution from the plants acquired from Lotus, and the return of Martin Lake Unit 1. Vistra narrowed 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion and set 2027 at $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion. That range was not a midpoint opportunity or a theoretical scenario. It was formal guidance, issued the same week a data center moratorium became a live political issue in state elections.

The political context matters for how to read the numbers. On Tuesday, 41 data center-related votes took place across ten states, with most results going against data centers, according to Ballotpedia tallies cited by Axios. Texas governor-elect Gina Hinojosa pledged to impose an “immediate moratorium” on new data center approvals until the Texas Legislature puts protections in place, as reported by the Texas Tribune. Vistra operates extensively in ERCOT. The shares still rose sharply on Friday while the S&P 500 barely moved.

The bull case is embedded in the guidance itself. This summer, PJM and ERCOT set new peak-load records, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Vistra’s management has pointed to load growth expectations in both markets through 2030 and said the company remains in active discussions with large-load customers in both regions. The hedging program, meanwhile, provides real earnings protection: the new $1.5 billion buyback authorization lifts remaining repurchase capacity to about $2.5 billion.

The bear case is ERCOT forward prices. ERCOT prices have been trending lower, and management acknowledged softness in ERCOT forwards. A moratorium that delays or reduces data center interconnections in Texas could suppress the demand growth that underpins the 2027 range’s upper bound. Management argued their plans had always embedded a more conservative view of the AI buildout and said the election outcome does not change their view of Vistra’s growth opportunities.

What sophisticated investors should focus on is the geographic split. PJM, which covers the mid-Atlantic and Midwest, is where forward prices have been firmer. Vistra’s bet is that even a slower ERCOT, constrained by politics, gets offset by tighter markets elsewhere. The company completed its purchase of Cogentrix in October, adding about 5,500 megawatts of natural gas generation, which diversifies the asset base beyond Texas meaningfully.

The PJM diversification thesis is not unique to Vistra. Regulated utilities anchored in PJM territory have been signing long-term data center power agreements that bypass the merchant-market volatility weighing on ERCOT.

The second data point arrives Monday morning. Constellation Energy will discuss third quarter 2026 earnings in a conference call on November 9 at 9:00 AM ET. Consensus marks earnings at approximately $3.90 per share, implying year-over-year growth of about 28%, per Zacks. Constellation’s Q3 results are expected to reflect the post-close contribution from the Calpine transaction and market conditions in PJM. Investors are also weighing policy uncertainty, outage risks, higher interest costs, and financing pressure tied to the Calpine deal. CEG’s portfolio is weighted more toward PJM than ERCOT, which may make it a cleaner read on whether the institutional thesis holds independent of Texas politics.

Stocks to Watch

Vistra (VST): The 2027 guidance range of $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion is wide enough to reflect genuine uncertainty about ERCOT demand pacing. The buyback provides a floor. Where management’s large-load negotiations land over the next two quarters determines whether the top of that range is reachable.

Constellation Energy (CEG): Reporting Monday with consensus around $3.90. Its heavier PJM weighting makes it the cleaner test of whether the power demand thesis survives outside Texas.

NRG Energy (NRG): Less discussed, but NRG operates across both ERCOT and PJM with a large retail arm. A data center slowdown in Texas hits its wholesale economics, but the retail business provides ballast that VST and CEG lack at the same scale.